DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051257
SWODY1
SPC AC 051256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO SRN CANADA THIS
PERIOD...LARGELY REMOVED FROM CLOSED LOWS NOW OVER CNTRL CA AND WV.
THE CA SYSTEM WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
PERIOD. ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW...SATELLITE SHOWS AN IMPULSE NOW
MOVING NWD UP THE LWR CO VLY. AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE ON THE WRN
SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SSE TO NRN BAJA LATER TODAY...BEFORE
TURNING N/NE INTO WRN AZ BY TONIGHT/EARLY WED.

...AZ AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE LWR CO VLY...
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE ON WRN SIDE OF CA LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLY
TIMED TO ENHANCE DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS
OF AZ AND SRN NV THIS AFTN AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS IN WAKE OF
STORMS NOW OVER REGION ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE.

THE STRONGEST SFC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER WRN AND SRN AZ...WHERE
PW SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1.00 INCH...WITH AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPR 50S F. PERSISTENT SLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
MORE CLOUDINESS N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL
TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 14 C AT 500 MB/ WITH EVEN MODEST HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT AFTN SBCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG OVER SRN AZ...WITH MORE
LIMITED BUOYANCY FARTHER N.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH SFC HEATING AND
DEEP SSWLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO FOSTER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN/EVE IN CNTRL/SRN AZ. THE STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO
BROKEN LINES GIVEN 50 KT MID LVL FLOW...WITH A THREAT FOR POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND AND ISOLD LARGE
HAIL.

A MORE LIMITED SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND NWD INTO SE NV AND SW UT... BUT
CLOUDS/WEAKER LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TEMPER OVERALL
POTENTIAL.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/05/2010

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