DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051905
SWODY1
SPC AC 051903

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ...

...AZ...

STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE SFC
FRONT HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY...MLCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT HAS DESTABILIZED A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN FORWARD FLANK OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE...PRIMARILY OVER THE DESERTS. LATEST RADAR DATA CONFIRMS
THIS POTENTIAL WITH SEVERAL ONGOING STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DARROW.. 10/05/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010/

...SWRN U.S...
UPR LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SCENTRAL CA AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL ACTUALLY RETROGRADE TO NEAR COAST BY TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS SWRN CANADA. VORT LOBE APPROACHING SRN CA THIS AM WILL ROTATE
NEWD AND THEN NWD BY TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW REDEVELOPS BACK TO
SCENTRAL CA COAST.

STRONG SLY FLOW OF MOIST AND ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL PERSIST
ACROSS AZ THRU THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING AND LOW LEVEL
COOLING ON THE TUS 12Z SOUNDING IMPLIES THAT THE FOCUS FOR AZ TODAY
SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LESS THAN 7C/KM AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT OVERALL
WEAKER UPDRAFTS IN TODAY CONVECTION.

UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHILE SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD
LESSEN EARLIER CONCERN FOR SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE THREAT. THERE IS
STILL POTENTIAL WHERE SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON HEATING CAN OCCUR OVER
DESERTS VALLEYS FOR ISOLATED STRONG...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

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