WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 691

WWUS20 KWNS 051853
SEL1
SPC WW 051853
AZZ000-060200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM MST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 700
PM MST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF PRESCOTT ARIZONA TO 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON
ARIZONA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS SCENTRAL AZ WITH THE APPROACH OF S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL JET FROM SCAL. WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR FROM
35-40KT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP N AND E ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.

...HALES

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