SWODY1
SPC AC 231300
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NNE INTO THE MID MO AND
MID MS VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN NEB UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...REACHING THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 12Z
SUN. AT THE SAME TIME...SRN STREAM IMPULSE OVER FAR W TX SHOULD
MOVE ENE ACROSS CNTRL/NE TX LATER TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS
AR/MO TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. BOTH FEATURES WILL POSE A RISK FOR SVR
TSTMS TO THEIR IMMEDIATE EAST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE PLAINS.
...TX/SE OK...
TSTMS LIKELY WILL FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF
WRN...CNTRL AND N TX TODAY AS SRN IMPULSE ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY
RICH MOISTURE RETURN /WITH PW UP TO 1.50 INCHES/. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG DEVELOPING QLCS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM BY
AFTN AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS THE LWR LEVELS SLOWLY
DESTABILIZE NEAR LOW LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER
CNTRL AND NE TX.
CLOUDS AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF MAIN IMPULSE WILL
LESSEN DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. BUT COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND SEASONABLY RICH
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS...LEWPS...AND SUPERCELLS
WITHIN THE QLCS GIVEN 40-50 KT SSW TO SWLY DEEP SHEAR. THESE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES. TORNADOES ALSO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INDEPENDENT STORMS FORMING ALONG
CONFLUENCE ZONE E OF QLCS.
THE SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE EVE E/NE INTO PARTS
OF NE TX AND SE OK BEFORE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES BEYOND
LOW LVL INSTABILITY AXIS.
...MID/LWR MO VLY TO MID MS VLY...
AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF NEB/IA/KS
AND MO THIS PERIOD AS WRN NEB UPR LOW EDGES EWD. SATELLITE AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A COMPLEX STRUCTURE TO THE LOW...WITH
PERHAPS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING GENERALLY NEWD OVER THE
MID/LWR MO VLY ATTM. THE SFC PATTERN IS EQUALLY COMPLEX...WITH
SEVERAL AXES OF CONFLUENCE ROTATING AROUND NEARLY STNRY LOW OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLNS.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
MUCH OF NEB...CNTRL AND ERN KS...WRN PARTS OF MO/IA AND SRN SD. SFC
HEATING ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AXIS/STRATUS FIELD ...AND
ASCENT AHEAD OF MAIN PART OF UPR LOW...MAY SUPPORT SCTD AFTN STORMS
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXES IN NEB/SRN SD. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER IN
THE DAY OR THIS EVE IN IA/MO.
30-40KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IF/
WHEREVER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DO FORM. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED RELATIVE TO THE SRN PLNS...COOLER MID LVL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PRESENT TO ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. SVR HAIL AND...GIVEN STRONG
LOW LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES...TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.
..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/23/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment