SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231229
TXZ000-OKZ000-231400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW...W-CENTRAL...NW...AND N-CENTRAL
TX...AND EXTREME SRN OK.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...
VALID 231229Z - 231400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703
CONTINUES.
ADDITIONALLY...AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND/EXPAND ENEWD
TOWARD PORTIONS SRN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX BETWEEN FSI-DFW DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS.
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED AND STRENGTHENED IN SEVERAL SOLID TO BKN
BANDS ACROSS WRN/NRN PORTIONS WW AREA. RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELL
PRODUCED ESTIMATED 1-INCH HAIL IN TOM GREEN COUNTY AT 12Z...AND
FURTHER INSTANCED OF SVR HAIL ARE LIKELY AS CONVECTION EXPANDS OVER
REGION AMIDST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH SRN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN NM AND FAR W TX...TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON
HOURS...RESULTING IN STEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASINGLY JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THETAE
THAT CHARACTERIZED SFC MOIST SECTOR. 12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
DRYLINE NEAR 6S6-SWW-GAG LINE...WHICH MAY DRIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
NW TX AND WRN OK AS SWLY SFC FLOW SHIFTS WRN LIMITING STREAMLINES OF
MOISTURE FIELD EWD. MEANWHILE...MODIFIED DRT RAOB INDICATES THAT
BASAL INVERSION CHARACTERIZING MEX ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM 00Z
RAOB IS GONE..AND VERY LITTLE CINH IS EVIDENT IN FWD RAOB AS WELL.
MODIFICATIONS TO THESE AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE LIFTED
PARCELS ARE SFC-BASED OR VERY NEARLY SO ACROSS WW AREA...A CONDITION
THAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS SUBTLE DIABATIC HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR
BENEATH CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND FROM MOST INTENSE DISCRETE DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL AS FROM
BOWS. TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM ANY
RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED SUPERCELL OVER SRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS
WW...GIVEN POCKETS OF 200-300 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH COLLOCATED WITH
AREAS OF LITTLE OR NO CINH AND AT LEAST OCNL/SEMI-DISCRETE STORM
MODES.
..EDWARDS.. 10/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30030228 31600171 32480103 33829936 34329690 32989696
31899809 30709899 29570081 30030228
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