SWODY2
SPC AC 050453
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
ARIZONA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
GENERALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA COULD OCCUR...IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES AROUND ITS PERIPHERY ...PERHAPS THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PACIFIC...WITHIN THE WESTERLIES... LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIALLY MORE
VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN LIFTING
MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.
DESPITE THE TRANSITION IN THE EAST...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MODELS NOW APPEAR MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD LINGER FROM THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS INTO
THE VICINITY OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE FINALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND WARMING MID-LEVELS STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION OF A LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...IN THE
PRESENCE OF CONTINUING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR A 50-60+ KT CYCLONIC 500
MB JET STREAK NOSING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION REMAINS UNCLEAR ACROSS
THIS REGION. STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES THAN NOW
DEPICTED.
..KERR.. 10/05/2010
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