SWODY3
SPC AC 050721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA
CONCERNING UPPER FLOW DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LINGERING CLOSED LOW
WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTIVE THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY MERGE INTO AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
UPSTREAM...MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS...WITH MODELS INDICATING A
CONTINUING SLOW NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND WEAKENING OF A
REMNANT CLOSED LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE PACIFIC COAST...AFTER EMERGING FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE
MID LATITUDE PACIFIC.
AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SAME
TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...THOUGH POTENTIAL SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELDS ON THURSDAY...WITH WEAKENING
OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW...WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO A
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION... PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY LOW LIKELIHOOD FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED
FASHION ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY NOT BE FAVORABLY
TIMED WITH RESPECT TO THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE RISK FOR
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO
WESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
..KERR.. 10/05/2010
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