SWODY2
SPC AC 150551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT MIDDLE-UPPER CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER NRN BAJA..IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE INTO EARLY DAY-2
PERIOD. HOWEVER...PHASING OF NRN/SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN WLYS OVER CENTRAL/NRN PAC...WILL
RESULT IN COASTAL HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN PERIOD. AS THIS
OCCURS...BAJA LOW WILL DRIFT EWD TO NEWD ACROSS AZ-SONORA BORDER
REGION. MEANWHILE...IN LOW LEVELS...PRESENCE OF
PRONOUNCED...DRY..CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE OVER SERN CONUS...WITH
RIDGING SWD ACROSS WRN GULF COAST REGION...WILL PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT TSTM POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES.
...AZ...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH CONDITIONAL
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FCST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS AREA AS WEAK MOIST
ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH DAY-1 INTO DAY-2...SUPPLEMENTED BY ANY
CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO SFC MOISTURE IN AND UPSTREAM FROM AREA
FROM DAY-1 PRECIP. PW AOA 1 INCH SHOULD RESULT...BECOMING
INCREASINGLY JUXTAPOSED WITH DESTABILIZATION ALOFT ACCOMPANYING
MID-UPPER LOW. STRENGTH/SPATIAL EXTENT OF MOST FAVORABLE SFC
DIABATIC HEATING IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CLOUD/CONVECTIVE
EFFECTS LINGERING INTO EARLY PERIOD FROM PRIOR/DAY-1 OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY THERE AND IN ADJACENT PORTIONS MEX. WHERE STG HEATING CAN
OCCUR...EXPECT STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG ATOP WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS.
WEAKNESSES IN BOTH LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 10/15/2010
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