SWODY3
SPC AC 150709
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
TRANSITIONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED AS PERSISTENT AND CURRENTLY
CUT-OFF CYCLONE NOW OVER BAJA EJECTS FROM SRN AZ/SONORA AREA ENEWD
ACROSS FAR W TX...AND WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY INTO
LOW-AMPLITUDE/OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...STG PAC SHORTWAVE
MENTIONED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK SHOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
BROAD/CLOSED CYCLONE INVOF CENTRAL CA BY END OF PERIOD. THIS
GENERAL LOCATION IS BASED ON STG CONSENSUS OF SREF MEMBERS...ECMWF
AND SPECTRAL...WITH 18/12Z OFFSHORE POSITION OF OPERATIONAL WRF AS
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER.
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL OVER ERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...SFC
RIDGING WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF GULF COAST REGION.
BECAUSE OF THIS...SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
ADVECTED/TRANSPORTED NWD PAST S TX UNTIL AFTER
PERIOD...SIGNIFICANTLY MINIMIZING SVR POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES.
...CA TO GREAT BASIN...
COOLING ALOFT IS FCST TO INCREASE AS UPPER LOW AND RELATED REGION OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APCHS...BEHIND WHAT IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ATTM...MOST PROBABLE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES INDICATES CENTRAL VALLEY REGION WILL BE IN RELATIVELY
VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DURING TYPICAL PEAK DIABATIC WARMING
TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...MORE FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS NV...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL THETAE IS MORE LIMITED. ATTM...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL/MRGL TO DRAW AOA 5% UNCONDITIONAL LINE ANYPLACE.
..EDWARDS.. 10/15/2010
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