Friday, October 15, 2010

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150841
SWOD48
SPC AC 150840

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED/CLOSED LOW ALOFT ARE FCST OVER CA
NEAR BEGINNING OF PERIOD...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN DAYS 2-3
OUTLOOKS. BY DAY-5/19TH-20TH...SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING
OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/ECMWF AND MOST MREF MEMBERS...SHOW LOW BECOMING
CUT OFF FROM PREVAILING WLYS FOR AT LEAST 24-36 HOURS...AND IN SOME
MODELS MUCH LONGER...OVER SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION. IN
DAYS 6-7/20TH-22ND AND BEYOND...THOSE PROGS THAT DO SHOW CYCLONE
OPENING AND/OR REJOINING WLY WAVE TRAIN ALSO DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON
AMPLITUDE AND PHASE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS INTERIOR
SERN/S-CENTRAL CONUS. BY EXTENSION...GREAT DIFFERENCES EXIST
REGARDING ITS IMPACTS ON LOW-LEVEL MASS/MOISTURE FIELDS. MEANWHILE
PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING OF VARYING AMPLITUDE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
ACROSS ERN CONUS...INDICATING LOW-LEVEL THETAE MAY BE LIMITED FOR
MUCH OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/15/2010

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