SWODY2
SPC AC 230550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY
AS AN OPEN WAVE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY...NOW
ARRIVING ON THE CNTRL CA COAST...WILL CARVE OUT A FORMIDABLE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOBILE
FEATURE WILL REACH THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EVEN STRONGER
TROUGH TRANSLATES INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES.
...ERN PARTS OF SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VLY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LWR/MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
BE MAINTAINED/TRANSPORTED THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS
VLY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING LEAD WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED
BANDS OF CONVECTION IN THE MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR PROBABILITIES WILL RAMP-UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FARTHER W AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ACROSS OK/TX. ZONE OF PROBABLE DIABATIC
HEATING...MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOLING/MOISTENING
PROFILES ATTENDANT WITH THE PV-ANOMALY WILL BE FAVORABLE STORM
INITIATION ALONG THE SURGING DRYLINE IN ERN OK AND NERN TX BY
MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE LIKELY AS ROUGHLY 50 KTS OF WLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES ORIENTED LARGELY NORMAL TO DRYLINE. STRONG
UVV...HOWEVER...SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO COMPLEX LINES WITH
EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES WITH AN ADDED THREAT FOR EVENING SVR
WINDS.
MOST OF THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH/SRN
MO OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE PROBABILITIES GRADUALLY DECREASING WHERE
CLOUDS/PCPN MITIGATE EARLY DAY HEATING. NONETHELESS...STRONG SHEAR
AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT NOCTURNAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG WRN EDGE OF THE RETREATING CP
AIR MASS OVER THE LWR MS VLY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE IN WARMING DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT
AMIDST INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH...BOOSTING CONCERN FOR TORNADOES AND
GUSTY WINDS.
...MID/UPR MS VLY...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND MAINLY REVOLVES AROUND UNCERTAINTY ON AIR MASS
RECOVERY FROM EARLY DAY CONVECTION. AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SWLY LLVL FLOW WILL RESPOND
WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC-BASED STORMS FROM ERN IA/SWRN WI
SWD INTO IL/MO. THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE AND LATER OUTLOOKS WILL HAVE TO
ADDRESS INSTABILITY CONCERNS FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK
UPGRADE.
..RACY.. 10/23/2010
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