SWODY3
SPC AC 230719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRST STRONG AUTUMN UPPER JET WILL CASCADE INTO THE CNTRL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS VLY
REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. A DOWNSTREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VLY
EARLY MONDAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.
...OH/LWR TN VLY SWD TO ERN GULF COAST AND EWD TO CAROLINA COAST...
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LEAD MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT ENHANCED SLY LLVL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL TRANSPORT MODEST GULF MOISTURE NWD
INTO AREAS W OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK
THERMAL BUOYANCY. MORNING CONVECTION MAY MITIGATE HEATING...BUT A
NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS MAY
OCCUR FROM PARTS OF ERN KY SWD TO THE ERN GULF COAST. RESIDUAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...FARTHER E...GULF STREAM MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SC/NC MONDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE GRAZES
THE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GIVEN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY...A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED STORMS MAY EVOLVE WITH
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.
...MID-MS VLY/OZARKS...
RAPID ATMOSPHERIC ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS WITH AN INCREASE IN STRONG SLY LLVL FLOW AS THE 160 KT
250 MB JET DIGS INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. OCCLUDING LOW WILL MOVE
INTO SRN CANADA WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING NNW TO THE E OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD TO
THE WRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
ILL-TIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH/WITHOUT LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR LATE
IN THE PERIOD. BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL EXIST FROM ERN IA/WRN IL SW INTO NE OK/NRN AR. STRONG
AMBIENT WINDS ALREADY PRESENT MAY BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR
A RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
..RACY.. 10/23/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment