SWODY2
SPC AC 111722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE N CNTRL
GULF STATES AND ADJACENT MS/TN VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE MAIN BELT
OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO WESTERN
CANADA...DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SPLIT
FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EVOLVE AND DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. THIS
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A CLOSED LOW NOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH... ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE LATTER FEATURE MAY CONTINUE
DIGGING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST...AND WEAKENING...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS REGIME...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WHILE ANOTHER SURGES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THESE MAY BE PRECEDED BY A WEAKER FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR /AS REFLECTED BY MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERNMOST FRONT. BUT
THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
...PARTS OF THE N CNTRL GULF STATES/LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NEAR THE DIGGING UPPER LOW MAY
BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORMING DURING
THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH
30-50 KT CYCLONIC WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS
POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT STATES. THIS IS WHERE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM MAY OVERSPREAD DURING THE HOURS NEAR AND
SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.
..KERR.. 10/11/2010
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