SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111919
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-112015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...OH - NY - PA - NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111919Z - 112015Z
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HAS LINGERED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME
ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER...NWWD INTO SRN ONTARIO IS FINALLY BEGINNING
TO INTENSIFY AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED IN
STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMALS. THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS COULD EASILY ORGANIZE AS THEY PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS PA
TOWARD NJ/SRN NY. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS AN UPWARD EVOLVING
BROKEN SQUALL LINE STRETCHES FROM TIOGA COUNTY PA...ARCING INTO
CENTRE COUNTY PA. DAMAGING WINDS CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE WITH
AFOREMENTIONED CELLS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT CAN ORIENT THEMSELVES
IN A NE-SW FASHION.
..DARROW.. 10/11/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 42448046 42427683 41277378 39747443 40487832 40658241
42448046
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