SWODY1
SPC AC 200543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL DEEPEN AND
BEGIN TO PROGRESS EWD DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG JET ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE...AN
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO NRN CA WHILE A STRONG SWLY JET
DEVELOPS OVER THE SWRN US. MEANWHILE...GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
...COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN ORE AND NRN CA...
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MUCH OF
THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION WILL BE TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
LIGHTNING...A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD.
...SRN CA...SRN GREAT BASIN...
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA AND THE SRN GREAT BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT AND STRONG SWLY JET ALOFT...BUT FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
..DEAN.. 11/20/2010
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