SWODY2
SPC AC 200553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES. A LEAD PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH STEADILY ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN CA
TO THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
...COASTAL CA/ORE...
A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOR
COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CA...AND OTHERWISE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FOR PERHAPS COASTAL ORE /AND MORE LIKELY OFFSHORE
WATERS/...AS A STRONG POLAR JET DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. IN EITHER CASE...TSTM PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW
TO WARRANT A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK.
...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH
CONSEQUENTIAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SCANT BUOYANCY/LIMITED
PROSPECTS FOR CHARGE SEPARATION IMPLY ANY TSTMS WILL BE OF A
SPORADIC COVERAGE.
...MIDWEST/LAKE MI VICINITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
WILL DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND CURRENTLY OPT NOT TO
INTRODUCE A TSTM OUTLOOK AREA FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LOW
PROBABILITY TSTM SCENARIO AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
NONETHELESS...IT SEEMS A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
09Z...AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/LEVEL LEVEL JET INCREASE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
..GUYER.. 11/20/2010
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