SWODY3
SPC AC 200743
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2010
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH/BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS ON MONDAY...AN EMBEDDED/CONSIDERABLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY BY EARLY
TUESDAY. AS A SURFACE LOW STEADILY DEEPENS/ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ALONG A GENERALLY EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
...MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
A STRONG EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD FLUX/PARTIAL RETURN OF A MODIFIED
MARITIME AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW/EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF
EARLY DAY ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MAINLY LAKE MI
GENERAL VICINITY...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE PRIMARY TIMING OF WARM
SECTOR TSTMS AND ANY SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE
EVENING/PERHAPS LATE NIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH THE
EXPECTED MAIN ARRIVAL OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK.
REGARDLESS...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AMID THE
GENERAL PREVALENCE OF 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
NONETHELESS...PROVIDED WEAK BUOYANCY OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...A RATHER STRONG LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELD MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED/FAST
MOVING STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE...AT LEAST ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS.
..GUYER.. 11/20/2010
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