SWOD48
SPC AC 200927
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2010
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE DETAILS VARY...00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD TRANSITION OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
INITIALLY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A
DECELERATING/STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ON DAY
5/WEDNESDAY...AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF A CENTRAL STATES UPPER TROUGH. WHILE A MEASURE OF NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME...IT
DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
EXIST ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY INTO DAY 6/THANKSGIVING DAY...ESPECIALLY IF
THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES AS COMPARED TO 00Z GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE. FOR DAY
5/WEDNESDAY...SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF MO/AR
AND THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX VICINITY TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE
MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY.
..GUYER.. 11/20/2010
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