SWOD48
SPC AC 090908
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST THU DEC 09 2010
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN CONUS ON
SUN/D4 BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND HOW FAR W IT WILL DIG WITH THE ECMWF THE
SLOWER/FARTHER S SOLUTION AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS A BIT FASTER AND
FARTHER E. THE MREF MEAN IS IN BETWEEN. REGARDLESS OF MODEL
SOLUTION...THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD OFF THE
ATLANTIC.
FROM D5-D7...THE ERN TROUGH GRADUALLY EJECTS NEWD...WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN
PROLONGED DRY WEATHER. THERE IS SOME INDICATION ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH
MAY FORM OVER THE WRN U.S. AFTER D7 BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
..JEWELL.. 12/09/2010
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