SWODY1
SPC AC 180522
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE GULF STREAM TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AWAY FROM
THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER PLACE
ACROSS THE CONUS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IS IN SE FL. SFC
HEATING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AROUND MIAMI. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SE FL SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD INITIATE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIMITED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION IN SE FL
SUB-SEVERE.
..BROYLES.. 01/18/2011
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