SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180529
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-181130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST MON JAN 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY...SERN PA
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 180529Z - 181130Z
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z ACROSS SERN
PA AND THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA. P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FZRA BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR.
A SWATH OF WINTRY-MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE
EXPANDING NWD INTO THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND SERN PA. 05Z
SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS POSITIONED
FROM 15 NE ACY TO 30 SSW DOV...WITH LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF NJ AND SERN PA. AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION
TO FZRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 06Z AS LOW-LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS
ATOP SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL YIELD INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES
OVER THE AREA. WITH TIME...THE SFC FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NWD...WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVER NJ...NRN DEL...AND PORTIONS OF SERN PA BY 12Z.
..ROGERS.. 01/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39687511 39507572 39517621 39667688 39957734 40497690
40967560 40977504 40717457 40207444 39687511
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