SWODY1
SPC AC 240543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PREVALENT OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CONUS...MULTIPLE POSITIVELY-TILTED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY PHASE BY EARLY TUESDAY. RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE/DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS...WITH
LIMITED/VIRTUALLY NIL TSTM POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE TX/LA GULF COASTAL REGION...WHERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE OFFSHORE/NEAR-SHORE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AMID
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
...TX/LA COASTAL AREAS...
AS A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EVOLVES/APPROACHES THE REGION AS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE/SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG/OFF THE UPPER TX/LA COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE/ATTENDANT MARITIME AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO PRINCIPALLY REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN TOO STABLE INLAND FOR A
DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT EVEN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
ACROSS SOUTHERN LA LATE TONIGHT. AS SUCH...SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 01/24/2011
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