DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240613
SWODY2
SPC AC 240613

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL AND SRN GA...

...FLORIDA/SRN GA/FAR SRN SC...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD APPROACHING CNTRL FLORIDA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE DAY WITH CONVECTION
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVES TOWARD CNTRL FL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA WILL MOISTEN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ETA-KF CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL FL BY LATE AFTERNOON INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION TO ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. THE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...DEFINITELY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ON WHETHER STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. IF
THE STORMS TEND BE LINEAR...THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE SCENARIO DEFINITELY LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK.

FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GA AND SC COAST...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL FORECASTS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWER AND
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR OFF THE COAST
OF SC SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE.
FOR THIS REASON...THE LOW-END PROBABILITIES EXTEND ACROSS SRN GA BUT
NOT INTO ERN SC.

..BROYLES.. 01/24/2011

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