SWODY3
SPC AC 140819
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NW
SWD INTO CA. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EVOLUTION OF
IMPULSES DROPPING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AS WELL AS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE IN
VICINITY OF S TX EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF IMPULSES SWD INTO TX WHERE IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM NRN
STREAM...COMPARED TO THE NAM AND GFS WHICH ARE MUCH WEAKER AND
MAINTAIN THE FEATURE WITHIN THE NRN BRANCH.
...SRN THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
IN EITHER CASE...SOME THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER FROM
PORTIONS OF SRN THROUGH ERN TX EXPANDING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. DETAILS REGARDING WHERE GREATER COVERAGE IS LIKELY ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE NRN OR SRN
STREAM IMPULSES DOMINATE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY.
..DIAL.. 01/14/2011
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