SWOD48
SPC AC 140943
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2011
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE ERN STATES WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC NW MUCH OF THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE TO SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE RETURN OVER MOST OF THE
MAINLAND. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN RETURNING THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA LATE
DAY 4 /MONDAY/ INTO DAY 5 /TUESDAY/ AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EWD. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
IMPULSES MOVING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH AND INTO THE NRN GULF/SERN
STATES. ECMWF INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
FROM TX INTO THE NERN GULF LATE MONDAY AND SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE FL PENINSULA. GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA.
..DIAL.. 01/14/2011
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