SWODY3
SPC AC 180840
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2011
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
NRN BRANCH IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AS NRN STREAM
AMPLIFIES...WEAKER SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHEAR EWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE SPECTRAL AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE OPERATIONAL NAM DEEPENING THE LOW MUCH FASTER
AND FARTHER W THAN THE ECMWF...GFS...NAM KF AND SREF. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON SLOWER DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC.
...NERN GULF COAST THROUGH NRN FL AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF CP AIR WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SEWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY TN VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL AREA. WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...850 MB
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN MORE WSWLY AND TEND TO LIMIT
RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT LOW TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE FL PENINSULA. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE CNTRL GULF NEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. THE LLJ
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA THROUGH NRN FL INTO
THE ERN CAROLINAS. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
COULD DEVELOP MAINLY FROM THE NERN GULF INTO NRN FL WHERE RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN VICINITY OF LLJ. HOWEVER...THE
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER
FORCING TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION PRECLUDES INTRODUCING SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 01/18/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment