SWOD48
SPC AC 180929
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2011
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS IS THAT A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OVER
ALL OF THE MAINLAND EXCEPT FL.
DAY 4...SOME THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS MAY EXIST OVER CNTRL-SRN FL
ALONG AND AHEAD OF SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
SHEAR ALONG BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO
ORGANIZE. ECMWF MAINTAINS A 35+ KT WLY LLJ IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF. LIKELIHOOD
OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
BEYOND DAY 4 ANOTHER SURGE OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF WILL RESULT IN
LOW POTENTIAL FOR STORMS UNTIL POSSIBLY DAY 8 OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
..DIAL.. 01/18/2011
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