SWOD48
SPC AC 280921
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 4-5/. WHILE THE DETAILS OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE FEATURES ARE UNCERTAIN...THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
FORCING/ANTICIPATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...COMBINED WITH THE QUICK
RETURN OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INITIALLY ACROSS TX MONDAY NIGHT/LATE DAY 4 INTO TUESDAY/DAY 5. AS
SUCH...THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED AROUND DAY 5/TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX/ARKLATEX AND
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE DEGREE OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF A POTENTIAL SEVERE
EVENT PRECLUDE 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS VERY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
..GUYER.. 01/28/2011
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