MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0034

ACUS11 KWNS 191238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191237
NEZ000-191730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 191237Z - 191730Z

SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM W-E ACROSS CENTRAL NEB THIS MORNING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RATES TO INCREASE TO 1+ IN/HR BY MID-LATE MORNING
/15-18Z/. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM KMHN TO 25 N KGRI.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A WEAKER LEAD IMPULSE
WAS SHIFTING EWD THROUGH WY. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50-60 KT WLY
MIDLEVEL JET ATTENDANT TO THIS LEAD WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEB DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...WIND PROFILERS/WSR-88D VADS
SHOWED A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK TO WRN
KS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND
LEAD IMPULSE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ INTO SRN NEB
JUXTAPOSED BENEATH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE OF THE
LEAD IMPULSE JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION BETWEEN 15-18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER WILL RESIDE WITHIN PART OF THE STRONGER
UVVS...ENHANCING THE SNOWFALL RATES.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WNW-ESE
ORIENTED BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER SWRN SD INTO THE WRN HALF OF
NEB. THE EXPECTED WNW-ESE ORIENTATION TO THE GREATER SNOWFALL RATES
PER DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS/03Z SREF APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO ORIENTED WNW-ESE. GIVEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TODAY RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOW
RATIOS...THE DENDRITIC ENHANCEMENT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL
RATES WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA...ESPECIALLY BY 15-18Z.

..PETERS.. 01/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42029900 41839840 41229829 40949866 41169967 41390066
41940111 42400066 42029900

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.