SWODY1
SPC AC 170448
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND ACROSS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MOBILE UPPER WAVE...WITH A SWWD EXTENDING COLD FRONT
SETTLING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FARTHER W...UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NW BY 18/12Z...WITH SEVERAL LEAD IMPULSES ADVANCING EWD
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS.
...CNTRL/ERN KS...WRN MO...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CANADA...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY E-W ACROSS SRN KS/MO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF GRT LKS UPPER JET WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AS
THIS TAKE PLACE...40 KT SWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVER OK...FOCUSING
LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AT AROUND 850 MB COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL AID IN MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AS HIGH AS 60 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE
AND STRONG EML. THEREFORE...ANY INTRODUCTION OF SVR HAIL
PROBABILITIES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER OUTLOOKS.
..GARNER/DIAL.. 03/17/2011
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