SWODY3
SPC AC 170706
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLAT
RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND A GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE
WEDGE FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER NWRN TX/OK EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE POLAR
AIRMASS RETREATS ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...IT APPEARS STRONG
HEATING ALONG THE SRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE
IN DESTABILIZING THIS REGION...WITH THE NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTING
MEAGER INSTABILITY ACROSS FAR WEST TX AT 20/00Z. EVEN SO...STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LLJ MAY ALLOW TSTMS TO LINGER
INTO LATE EVENING...ATOP RETREATING AIRMASS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE...DUE TO WARM ADVECTION.
..DARROW.. 03/17/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment