SWODY2
SPC AC 030544
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST WED MAR 02 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK...AR...SRN MO...
...OZARKS/ERN OK/LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AS A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY BRINGS MOISTURE
NWD INTO THE OZARKS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW A CAPPED AIRMASS
IN PLACE FROM OK AND WRN AR SWD TO THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE CAP
SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY EVENING AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL MO SWWD INTO ERN OK
WITH THE LINE GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN A FEW AREAS. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS IN THE LINE.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID
60S F. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MS AND SRN LA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR NEW
ORLEANS AFTER 06Z SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING
THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...MODEL
FORECASTS DIFFER CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE GFS FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE NAM. FOR THIS
REASON...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND WILL
MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 03/03/2011
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