SWODY3
SPC AC 030714
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CST THU MAR 03 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE SRN PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY. THE SRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE IN THE
GULF COAST STATES WHERE A MOIST AXIS IS FORECAST. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S F ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN SE LA
AND POSSIBLY SRN MS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MS DELTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD EXTEND NEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SCNTRL MS
AND CNTRL AL MOVING SEWD WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN THE
MS DELTA SATURDAY...THE GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY NEAR A MID-LEVEL JET. FOR THIS REASON AND DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SEE TEXT WITH MARGINAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..BROYLES.. 03/03/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment