SWODY2
SPC AC 160449
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS VALLEY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE GULF STATES DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN STRONG SWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A SWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SUCH THAT BY
18/00Z THE PRIMARY WIND SHIFT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN WI...SWWD
ACROSS SRN IA INTO NERN KS WHERE IT WILL TEMPORARILY STALL AWAITING
A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE TO PASS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODIFIED GOM BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL RETURN NWD
ACROSS TX/OK INTO ERN KS WHERE MID 50S-NEAR 60F SFC DEW POINTS WILL
BE ADVECTED ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY DUE TO SUSTAINED WARM
ADVECTION. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IT
APPEARS THE LLJ/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PARCELS LIFTED
AOA 850MB MAY YIELD MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WHERE CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DEEP WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT TSTM
COVERAGE AND CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED ELEVATED
STORMS PRIMARILY AFTER DARK.
...ELSEWHERE...
OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
..DARROW.. 03/16/2011
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