SWODY3
SPC AC 160701
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
DAY3 PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
SHEAR EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NET RESULT GIVEN THIS EVOLUTION
WILL BE FOR SFC PRESSURES TO RISE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS
VALLEY REGION FORCING A WELL PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT TO A POSITION
ALONG THE OH RIVER...SWWD INTO NWRN TX BY 19/00Z. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE GULF BASIN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MOIST RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...NEWD ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL NOT PROVE
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG SFC HEATING. EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING WILL REDUCE
INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL ORGANIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DIURNAL HEATING ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TX COULD AID
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT CLOUD BASES MAY APPROACH 650-700MB
WITH ROUGHLY 30KT OF SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING
AND OTHERWISE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 03/16/2011
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