SWODY3
SPC AC 040724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES ON SUNDAY AS A
NEW IMPULSE APPROACHES THE CA COAST. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER GA EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING TO A POSITION OFF
DELMARVA BY 12Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD FROM THE OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND
NRN FL AND BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS.
...ERN CAROLINAS TO NRN FL...
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY DAY 3...WITH 00Z GFS FASTER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF /PREFERRED SOLUTIONS/.
STOUT SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
TRANSPORT 1-1.25" PRECIPITABLE WATERS NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS/FL.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...AS MODEST ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 75+ KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE MOIST
AXIS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SVR STORM /DAMAGING
WINDS/ ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS DURING SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TRAILING BANDS OF TSTMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NRN FL AND
COASTAL SE GA SUNDAY MORNING. AT LEAST 40 KTS OF WLY FLOW AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST.
..RACY.. 03/04/2011
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