SWOD48
SPC AC 040950
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
SWRN STATES ON MONDAY...THEN TURN ENE INTO THE PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...AND THE ERN STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH GFS
/FASTER SOLUTION/ AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS
TROUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND RECENT GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS
LEND SUPPORT TO THE 00Z ECMWF. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A
MODEST SFC CYCLONE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EARLY
TUESDAY TO NRN LOWER MI BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST AND
DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
STRONG 850 MB SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
TRANSPORT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD...ALTHOUGH PRECEDING FRONTAL
PASSAGE INTO THE GULF BASIN THIS WEEKEND MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE QUALITY. NONETHELESS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND THEN TRANSLATE ENE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...OH VALLEY...GULF COAST STATES WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE NERN STATES...MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY.
POSITIVE-TILT NATURE TO THE STORM SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT MAJORITY OF
THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO OFTEN LEADS TO CONVECTIVE MODE UNCERTAINTY.
SO WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE FROM THE OZARKS EWD INTO THE
MID-SOUTH IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...QUESTIONS INVOLVING
THE MOISTURE RETURN...THE TIMING CONTINUITY ISSUES IN THE MODEL
SUITE AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRECLUDE
CONFIDENTLY PLACING A HIGH-END SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..RACY.. 03/04/2011
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