DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130845
SWOD48
SPC AC 130845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT WED APR 13 2011

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM DEAMPLIFIES
AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
SATURDAY/DAY 4. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE THE ECMWF SHOW A MOIST AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR
60 F AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL VA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY/DAY 5 AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
MODELS THEN DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES ON
MONDAY/DAY 6 AND RETURN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX AND OZARKS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER
WEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THIS INTRODUCES
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY/DAY 7 AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE CNTRL STATES. THE SLOWER ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE FASTER GFS WOULD
RESULT IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MS VALLEY. IN SPITE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY SEVERE THREATS DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD...PREDICTABILITY FOR AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT AREA REMAINS
LOW.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.