SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190441
ILZ000-MOZ000-190615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO THROUGH SWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 190441Z - 190615Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INTO THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO SWRN IL. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND NEED FOR A WW IS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.
EARLY THIS MORNING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OH
VALLEY WWD THROUGH S-CNTRL MO INTO NRN OK. A RESERVOIR OF STRONG
2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR WHERE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS. ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG A STRONG SLY LLJ
WILL CONTRIBUTE NWD DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER
WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN W-CNTRL MO. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES NWD...ACTIVITY COULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..DIAL.. 04/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38509096 38289236 38079378 39109336 39439197 39219022
38728994 38509096
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