SWODY1
SPC AC 050539
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS 05/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
PROGRESSIVE-DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS INTENSIFY AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WITH
H5 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW MINUS 20C...LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE JET CORE ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION/TSTMS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA DOES NOT
SUGGEST MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WILL RETURN INTO THIS SYSTEM PRIOR TO
AFTERNOON INITIATION AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG
MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS A POCKET OF
.6-.8 INCH PWAT NOTED INVOF UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT DOWNSTREAM INTO
IA/MO ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG.
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IT WOULD
SEAM REASONABLE THAT THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS SHOULD PRODUCE HAIL
BUT LIKELY TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...SOUTH FL...
RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN FL ALONG/SOUTH OF SAGGING
FRONTAL ZONE. WEAK ELY FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 3KM SUGGESTS THE
PRIMARY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION OVER THE WARM SECTOR WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF TOWARD THE GULF COAST THURSDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES IT DOES NOT APPEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROVE
PARTICULARLY STRONG AND ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
..DARROW/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/05/2011
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