SWODY3
SPC AC 050719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A WNWLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS ON SAT. SEVERAL
MODELS DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY...AND MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY
SUN MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE FED NEWD INTO THIS REGION WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER IL BY 00Z.
...OZARKS NEWD INTO IL AND IND...
ISENTROPICALLY FED ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS
SRN MO/NRN AR SAT MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN MO
INTO IL...NEAR A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. GFS AND NAM SHOW BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S F...WHICH WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PERHAPS 500 J/KG MUCAPE BY PEAK HEATING. LIFT WITH
THE LOW AND STRONG HEATING WOULD YIELD LOW TOPPED CONVECTION CAPABLE
OF WIND/HAIL. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A BIT WEAKER/FARTHER E WITH THE
UPPER FEATURE AND LENDS MORE UNCERTAINTY TO AN ALREADY MARGINAL
SETUP. THUS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY LOW END SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE THREAT AREA CONDITIONALLY WOULD BE CENTERED OVER
IL.
..JEWELL.. 05/05/2011
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