SWODY1
SPC AC 060428
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD...EFFECTIVELY PREVENTING ANY MEANINGFUL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO THE REGION DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES. NET RESULT WILL BE FOR
TRANSITORY POCKETS OF ASCENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS AND ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER REGION INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY. ANOTHER REGION WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WEST TX. WHILE COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WOULD OTHERWISE ENCOURAGE HAIL GROWTH ACROSS THE NRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S...MEAGER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY IN BOTH REGIONS AND CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS THAT
FORM OVER THESE REGIONS WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED ABILITY TO GENERATE
HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
THE ONLY AREA WHERE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WEST TX. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN NM/WEST TX
PUSHING SFC TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM...ESSENTIALLY REMOVING ANY
INHIBITION THAT WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPRESS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THIS REGION
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN A BIT MARGINAL TO WARRANT ANY REAL
SEVERE THREAT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE LACKING WHICH COULD
OTHERWISE COMPENSATE FOR REDUCED INSTABILITY. EVEN SO GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HIGH BASED STORMS THAT MANAGE TO EVOLVE ACROSS
THIS REGION.
..DARROW/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/06/2011
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