SWODY2
SPC AC 060519
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
OVER THE NERN STATES BEGINS TO RELAX AS A NEW UPPER SYSTEM AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WRN STATES. AT THE SFC...WHILE PRIMARY COLD FRONT REMAINS
SITUATED FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE ERN GULF BASIN...A
NEW FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDWEST. A
WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MIDWEST FRONT AND MIGRATE EWD DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.
...OH VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL. WSWLY LLJ FEEDING
THE STORMS WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD
THROUGH THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THE EWD DEVELOPMENT OF SPORADIC TSTMS TOWARD THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER STORMS /ISOLD HAIL/ WILL
FAVOR WRN/SRN FRINGES OF ACTIVITY CLOSER TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
...NEW ENGLAND...
BEFORE THE NERN TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES LATE ON SATURDAY...A SECONDARY
IMPULSE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY H5
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-MINUS 20 DEG C DURING PEAK HEATING. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL GIVE RISE
TO CONVECTION/TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A COUPLE
STORMS MAY GIVE SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
...NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY...
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL OCCUR ALONG NWWD EXTENSION OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VLY. HERE...RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL COLD TEMPERATURES ON WRN FRINGE OF
THE NERN TROUGH COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE APT TO FORM SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NRN NEB
WITHIN CORE OF A DEVELOPING SLY LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING WRN
STATES TROUGH. NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
..RACY.. 05/06/2011
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