SWODY3
SPC AC 060728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY ATTENTION WILL REVOLVE AROUND A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WRN STATES WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DEEPER AND SLOWER.
SPLINTERING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MIX EWD INTO SCNTRL KS...WRN OK AND CENTRAL
EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION BY 21Z SUNDAY. STRONG EML WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC AS CAPPING CONCERNS PREVAIL. HOWEVER...WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING IMPULSE IN COMBINATION WITH VERY
HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPETUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS FROM SCNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN N TX LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BUOYANCY WILL BE ROBUST OWING TO AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
8.5 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY
SHOULD STORMS FORM WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING AS STORMS MOVE INTO
INCREASINGLY CAPPED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALONG ERN FRINGES OF THE DIGGING UPPER LOW WILL
SPREAD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/WRN NEB
BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. LLVL MOISTURE CIRCULATING NWWD ALONG NRN
EDGE OF A SFC LOW WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MID-TROP LAPSE RATES FOR
MODEST INSTABILITY AMIDST 45-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT
HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY...THEN
ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/NE OF THE SFC LOW
BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE
ELEVATED DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN
NEB AND POSSIBLY IA/NRN MO OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUED ISOLD LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT SLY LLJ.
..RACY.. 05/06/2011
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