SWOD48
SPC AC 060853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS AND THEN BEGINS TO
EJECT ENE INTO THE PLAINS BY TUE AND WED. AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN...SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A VERY
STRONG EML ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. AT THE SAME
TIME...THERE WILL BE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRYLINE TSTM INITIATION IS COMPARATIVELY MORE UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY
AFTN THAN ON SUNDAY AS MID-LEVELS FURTHER WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE
DIGGING IMPULSE INTO THE DESERT SW. MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENTS
APPEAR LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND...PARTICULARILY...ON WEDNESDAY /DAY 5
AND 6/ AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM BODILY MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.
THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN INCREASINGLY LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND
BUOYANCY...YIELDING THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
BEYOND DAY 6...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A INCREASING SPREAD
ON THE HANDLING OF THE TROUGH AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NERN STATES. THIS RENDERS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE SVR WEATHER AREAS.
..RACY.. 05/06/2011
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