SWODY1
SPC AC 061601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS SRN HALF OF FL
PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY. WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BRUSHING THE
REGION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
AND SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED STORM
DOWNDRAFTS WHILE MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
A FEW STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED HAIL
POTENTIAL.
...MID ATL TO PA/OH...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FROM SC/NC
NWD AND NWWD TO ERN OH AND PARTS OF PA. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY 40SF/...SURFACE HEATING COUPLED
WITH COOLING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF SBCAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG. THE ONSET OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH
MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN AREAS TO SUPPORT
HAIL AND TSTM WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLY APPROACHING SVR LEVELS. FROM
SRN VA ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AOA 60KT WILL
FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE BUT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STILL BE TEMPERED BY LACK OF MORE
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY.
...WEST TX...
AN ARRAY OF STORM SCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
OF PECOS/FORT STOCKTON LATER TODAY. DESPITE ONLY SUBTLE INDICATIONS
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR TSTM INITIATION IN WEAKLY
CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE REGIME. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR
A SVR WIND GUST APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME HOSTILE TO SUSTAINING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.
..CARBIN/COHEN.. 05/06/2011
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