SWODY2
SPC AC 061711
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION/REAMPLIFY OVER THE
CONUS ESPECIALLY THE LAST HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC...A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON SATURDAY. FARTHER WEST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR
OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE ONSET OF UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WEST OF
THE ROCKIES.
...OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
AT THE TERMINUS OF A STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...IT IS
LIKELY THAT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE OZARKS TO AREAS GENERALLY NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS
RIVERS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...BUT AN APPRECIABLE
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET/ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED GENERALLY PERSISTS DURING THE DAY...THIS
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...THE INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM
SECTOR NEAR/SOUTH OF A STALLING FRONT SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
CAPPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/GRADUAL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
OVERALL...THE LIMITED PHASING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
/PRIMARILY LOWER OH RIVER VICINITY/ COINCIDENT WITH THE GREATER
LAPSE RATE AND MOISTURE RESERVOIR /PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MS RIVER/
IMPLIES THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED ON SATURDAY. THIS
REGION WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 1
OUTLOOKS...BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
JUNCTURE.
...NEW ENGLAND...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NEAR/EAST OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
COINCIDENT WITH A -20 TO -25C /500 MB/ COLD POOL ALOFT...SOME OF
THESE LOW-TOPPED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SEVERE HAIL
/1 INCH IN DIAMETER/ IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK OVERALL
BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
..GUYER.. 05/06/2011
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