SWODY2
SPC AC 170543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF PSEUDO-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW. MODELS MAINTAIN ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DELMARVA
INTO ERN NC AND SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD HOLD FAVORABLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY
MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SEASONABLY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 16-20C AND SFC-6KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT IT WOULD SEEM ANOTHER BOUT OF ROBUST
TSTMS COULD EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM
TO NEAR 70F. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY A SLIGHT RISK
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
LEE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB SPEED MAX
ROTATES ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS...OK/TX
PANHANDLES. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK ELONGATED SFC LOW FROM SERN
CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. WITH VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST AND
BY PEAK HEATING A FAIRLY SHARP ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
BE ESTABLISHED FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...SEWD INTO NWRN TX. ONE
NEGATIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUXTAPOSED WITH
STRONGER FORCING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN CO/KS. EVEN SO...MODELS
SUGGEST SFC DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF
I-40...BUT LIKELY MIX INTO THE 50S NEAR THE DRYLINE YIELDING SBCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
ATTEMPT TO ROOT BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WARM
SECTOR ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT ENHANCED PROBS
AND CONVECTION ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. LLJ SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
OK/KS AFTER DARK AND STRONG ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD EMERGE WITHIN
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER KS. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS
THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 05/17/2011
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