SWODY1
SPC AC 170600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES/DELMARVA...
...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA/CAROLINAS...
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS EARLY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A NARROW WEDGE OF RELATIVELY HIGHER
THETA-E...CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA VICINITY AMID A
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD/INFLUENCE THE
WARM SECTOR RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY /PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING/...MODEST
LOW LEVEL HEATING COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT...IN THE PRESENCE OF
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SRH /GENERALLY MAXIMIZED IN THE DELMARVA GENERAL
VICINITY/...SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WITH
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.
FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...GENERALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PORTION OF THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH PIVOTING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. EVEN SO...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS IMPLY ONLY A
MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF WIND AND/OR HAIL.
...HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND ATTENDANT SHARPENING OF A LEE TROUGH WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN EARLY TODAY/ IS EXPECTED TO
REACH/GRAZE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY AROUND PEAK HEATING. OF
NOTE...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE/CERTAIN
SEVERE RISK WILL BE THE LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT/PW. THAT
SAID...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /40S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...DPVA AND DEEP MIXING/MASS CONVERGENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LEE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS...AND
PERHAPS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND/OR NEB PANHANDLE. SOME AT LEAST
BRIEFLY ORGANIZED STORMS/HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A DEEPLY MIXED/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 05/17/2011
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