SWODY3
SPC AC 170725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
A MULTI-DAY SLY RETURN FLOW EPISODE SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CNTRL
KS/WRN OK BY 20/00Z. THIS STRONGER H5 FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE...OR FARTHER NORTH WITHIN A
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE...MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 ACROSS NRN KS/SRN
NEB.
WHILE A PRONOUNCED LLJ WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SOME OF IT COULD
PRODUCE HAIL...A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT SHOULD
EVOLVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS KS...SWD INTO WRN OK. THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT STRONG SFC HEATING ACROSS SWRN KS...SWD INTO NWRN
TX WILL REINFORCE A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE THAT SHOULD MIX TO NEAR THE
TX/OK BORDER BY PEAK HEATING. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SUPERCELL INITIATION AS TEMPERATURES SOAR THROUGH THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE WIND SHIFT. JUST EAST-NORTH OF THE DRYLINE
HIGHER RH VALUES AND COOLER READINGS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THAT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE IN PLACE IF CLOUD BASES CAN LOWER AND ROOT INTO 60+ SFC DEW
POINTS. ALTHOUGH DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A CONVECTIVE
INITIATOR...SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS KS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN
TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION...POSSIBLY AIDED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT EXTEND
THE SLIGHT RISK INTO SWRN TX BUT THIS SCENARIO MAY REQUIRE AN
EXPANSION OF THE SEVERE OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHILE LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ELEVATED
ACTIVITY.
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC UNTIL THE UPPER LOW OVER THIS REGION FINALLY EJECTS
OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS WILL ONLY MARGINALLY
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER FEATURE BUT ENOUGH SUCH THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE STRONGEST DAYTIME HEATING.
..DARROW.. 05/17/2011
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